One of the best relievers in baseball is officially off the market. All-Star closer Josh Hader reportedly signed a five-year, $95 million deal with the Houston Astros on Friday, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan. He was the No. 9 free agent on Zach Crizer's top-25 list.
The contract, which is the largest for a relief pitcher in baseball history, does not contain financial deferrals, according to Passan.
With the move, the Astros pick up the best reliever in baseball the past seven seasons and bolster an already strong bullpen. Since Hader made his debut with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2017, he has posted the highest fWAR among all relievers. In his career, Hader, a lefty, has a 2.50 ERA over 388 2/3 innings. He has struck out 648 batters.
Committing major resources to a closer is a risky bet, but Hader has a strong track of dominance and consistency. Aside from 2022, when he posted a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings, Hader has posted an ERA better than league average every season that he has been in the majors.
Can Hader remain effective after a strong 2023?
He bounced back from that 5.22 ERA in spectacular fashion, posting a 1.28 ERA over 56 1/3 innings with the San Diego Padres in 2023, a performance far more in line with the numbers Hader has put up over his career. He has made the All-Star team in five of his seven seasons in the majors and won the NL reliever of the year award three times.
Hader's 2023 bounce-back came with one significant warning sign, however, as his average fastball velocity declined by more than a full mile-per-hour last season. He averaged 97.4 mph on the pitch in 2022, and that dropped to 96.1 mph in 2023. Despite the velocity loss, the pitch was actually more effective, and batters hit just .190 against Hader's fastball in 2023. If the lowered fastball velocity was a strategic move by Hader, the decline is less worrisome. Generally, though, it's not a good sign when a closer with elite velocity starts to lose a few ticks on his fastball.
Hader was the best reliever available on the market
There's always some volatility to reliever performance year over year, but Hader is a good bet to remain effective in the short term even if he experiences some decline. His strikeout numbers were still strong last season, and the velocity decline didn't affect his performance.
At 29, Hader was also the safest elite reliever on the market. David Robertson and Robert Stephenson were the next-best relievers available.
Because of that, signing Hader was always going to require a multi-year commitment. The move comes with risk — all reliever signings do — but Hader's recent track record suggests he'll remain a dominant pitcher, at least in the near term.
